Source: The Hindu

Introduction

Russian President has signed a revised nuclear doctrine that marks a major shift in Russia's military strategy. The new policy, signed on the 1,000th day of the Ukraine conflict, states that Russia will consider any conventional attack supported by a nuclear power as a joint attack on Russia. This means if Ukraine, supported by the US or NATO allies, attacks Russia using Western-supplied weapons, it could be viewed as an attack by NATO itself. The timing of this policy change is particularly notable as it follows President Biden's decision to allow Ukraine to use US-supplied longer-range missiles against Russian targets.

What are the Key Principles of Russia's Updated Nuclear Doctrine?

• The doctrine states that an attack against Russia by a non-nuclear power, with the participation or support of a nuclear power, will be perceived as a joint attack on the Russian Federation.
• It specifies that Russia may resort to nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear strike or a conventional attack that poses a "critical threat" to its sovereignty and territorial integrity, including that of its ally Belarus.
• While the doctrine states conditions for nuclear weapon use, it does not explicitly state that every attack will trigger a nuclear response. This ambiguity allows for a broad interpretation of what constitutes a threat.
• The doctrine asserts that aggression against Russia by a member of a military bloc or coalition is considered aggression by the entire bloc, implicitly referencing NATO.
• The updated doctrine details the scenarios in which nuclear weapons could be employed, particularly in the event of a massive aerial attack involving various military assets.

What is Nuclear Doctrine?

• A nuclear doctrine is a country's official policy that explains when, why, and how it might use its nuclear weapons - it's like a rulebook for nuclear weapons use and deterrence.
• It provides the conditions under which a country would consider using nuclear weapons, whether for defense, retaliation, or as a warning to other countries who might threaten them.
• Nuclear doctrines typically include statements about protecting a country's territory, responding to nuclear attacks by others, and sometimes even responding to large-scale conventional (non-nuclear) attacks that threaten national survival.
• These policies are usually made public so other countries know what actions might trigger a nuclear response - this transparency is meant to prevent conflicts from escalating to nuclear warfare.
• A nuclear doctrine also explains how a country plans to maintain and control its nuclear weapons, including who has the authority to order their use (like the president or military leaders).
• Countries sometimes update their nuclear doctrines to respond to new threats, changing global situations, or to send messages to potential adversaries - just as Russia has recently done.

How Has India's Nuclear Program Evolved Over Time?

• Early Phase (1940s-1960s):
  • India's nuclear journey began in late 1940s under Homi J. Bhabha's leadership, with the establishment of Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (1945) and Atomic Energy Commission (1948).
  • Under Nehru's leadership, India initially focused on peaceful nuclear development while advocating for global nuclear disarmament.
• Middle Phase (1970s-1990s):
  • India conducted its first nuclear test "Smiling Buddha" in 1974, but maintained it was for peaceful purposes. This led to the formation of Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).
  • India refused to sign both the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1968 and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), viewing them as discriminatory.
• Modern Phase (1998-Present):
  • The watershed moment came in May 1998 with Operation Shakti (Pokhran-II) tests, openly demonstrating India's nuclear weapons capability.
  • India adopted formal Nuclear Doctrine in 2003 with key principles:
    • "No First Use" policy
    • Credible minimum deterrence
    • Nuclear weapons only for retaliation against nuclear attack
    • No use against non-nuclear states
• Major Developments:
  • India achieved nuclear triad capability in 2016 with:
    • Land-based missiles
    • Air-delivered weapons
    • Submarine-launched missiles (INS Arihant)
  • International Relations:
    • 2008: India-US Civil Nuclear Agreement
    • 2016: Civil Nuclear Agreement with Japan
    • Continues to maintain strategic autonomy while developing peaceful nuclear capabilities
• Current Status:
  • India maintains a doctrine of "credible minimum deterrence" while developing civilian nuclear program for energy needs.
  • Focuses on responsible nuclear power status while advocating for global nuclear disarmament.

What is India's No First Use (NFU) Policy?

• Core Principles:
  • India's NFU policy means it will not be the first to use nuclear weapons in any conflict but will respond with massive retaliation if attacked with nuclear weapons.
• Important Features:
  • Main elements of NFU policy include:
    • Only use nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack
    • Retaliation will be massive and designed to inflict unacceptable damage
    • No nuclear weapon use against non-nuclear weapon states
    • Maintain a credible minimum deterrence
• History:
  • India formally adopted this policy in January 2003 after the 1998 nuclear tests, demonstrating its commitment to responsible nuclear weapon state behavior.
• Current Debate:
  • Arguments for maintaining NFU:
    • Enhances India's image as a responsible nuclear power
    • Reduces risk of accidental nuclear war
    • Provides strategic stability in the region
    • Helps maintain moral high ground internationally
  • Arguments for reviewing NFU:
    • Changed security environment in South Asia
    • Growing threats from state and non-state actors
    • Need to adapt to new military capabilities
    • Pakistan's aggressive nuclear posture
• International Aspect:
  • Among nuclear powers, only China and India maintain NFU policy
    • Other nuclear states like US, Russia, UK, France, Pakistan don't follow NFU
    • This makes India's position unique and demonstrates its commitment to responsible nuclear behavior
• Strategic Importance:
  • NFU policy helps India maintain strategic stability while keeping the nuclear threshold high, essentially making nuclear weapons the weapons of last resort.

Conclusion

Nuclear doctrine represents a significant escalation in Russia's military posture and sends a clear warning to Western nations supporting Ukraine. By explicitly stating that conventional attacks could trigger a nuclear response, Putin is attempting to deter Western military support for Ukraine while asserting Russia's nuclear capabilities. The vague wording of the doctrine, particularly regarding what constitutes a "critical threat," gives Russia considerable flexibility in interpreting and responding to perceived threats. This development adds another layer of complexity to the already tense international situation surrounding the Ukraine conflict.